A vueltas con la energía nuclear
Un fenómeno que hay que seguir con atención es la vuelta a la esfera pública tras las elecciones de la cuestión relativa a la energía nuclear. Sobre todo, una vez pasado el tiempo de los discursos y las soflamas, llega el tiempo de gestionar y abordar el escenario energético presente y futuro. La campaña electoral, sirvió para hacer un gesto antinuclear al PSOE (afirmó en el programa electoral, que no se prolongaría la vida de las centrales y que irían cerrando conforme se extiguiera su vida útil: blanco y en botella), a tratar de hacer traslucida la posición del Partido Popular. Después del 9M llegó el tiempo de hacer declaraciones ambiguas. El Presidente del Gobierno en el transcurso de su sesión de investidura afirmó que se propone que la economía española «se aleje progresivamente del carbono» y «de la energía dependiente del petróleo», aunque «no se acerque a la nuclear».
Por ello, hay que tener en cuenta lo que se denomina calendario político en esta ejecutoria. Difícilmente un gobierno puede abordar cuestiones de envergadura en la fase final de su legislatura, por lo tanto hay que correr y establecer prioridades y actuaciones en el primer tercio. Ese es el caso de la energía nuclear, o de las tarifas eléctricas que seguramente todavía va a dar lugar ríos de tinta (tinta china, incluso) en este primer comienzo de legislatura.
La cuestión de la energía nuclear tiene ese cariz. Y, es peculiar, como cada vez que se abre el debate (o se aprecia la necesidad de abrir el debate), comienzan a aparecer incidentes (presentes o retrasados) que cobran fuerza, informaciones espurias de existencia de particulas radiactivas (que nunca superan los límites legales, pero se difunden con fruición) o maletines con material radiactivo que se pierden (¿se acuerdan de él?), cuestiones que impiden un enfoque “sano” de la situación.
En tiempos del Ministro Montilla, se creó una mesa de estudio, cuyos resultados sobre fueron escamoteados en medio de la vorágine regulatoria, el cambio de ministro por elevación a la Generalitat y las operaciones corporativas en el sector energético. Por otra parte, uno de los documentos en los que estaba trabajando el Ministerio de Industria a final de la anterior legislatura, era la Prospectiva 2030 (trabajo concienzudamente retirado de la circulación inmediatamente a las elecciones, porque lógicamente, tendría que reabrir, el problema político de la cuadratura del círculo:conseguir una energía diversificada, poco contaminante, para una demanda creciente, que fuera barata (evitar trasladar las tarifas a los ciudadanos, el aumento de las renovables y la reducción de la dependencia energética exterior. Todo ello volvería a apuntar nuevamente a la energía nuclear, como elemento a tener en cuenta en el mix de generación futuro, aunque no se sepa como. Parece, por tanto, que siempre que aparece un momento razonable para abordar esta cuestión, empiezan misteriosamente a aflorar los sucedidos para abortar este debate, sobre todo porque los términos de estos debates son bastante maníqueos: un todo o nada, poco justificable.
Del mismo modo, cobran cada vez más fuerzas las posiciones que abogan por reabrir el debate nuclear. Desde la Comision Europea, los organismos internacionales. Hoy Gerardo Díaz Ferrán, presidente de la CEOE es quien vuelve a poner el tema encima de la mesa (con anterioridad yo lo habían puesto encima de la mesa, las Cámars de Comercio). Por otra parte, recientemente, ha sido nombrada la nueva presidenta del Foro Nuclear, Teresa Domínguez que sustituye a Eduardo González al frente de esta asociación que integra a a las instalaciones nucleares y la nueva presidenta, debe reconocer estas corrientes para participar en la apertura del debate sobre esta energía.
Por otra parte, la posición en las ‘familias del Partido Socialista no es homogenea’ y de la rocosa expresión explicita en el programa electoral parece que está sumido en un cierto debate que no se sabe si es de ideas o de personas. Por ejemplo, las ultimas declaraciones de Felipe González (bajo su mandato se firmó la denominada moratoria nuclear) piedra de toque, decir que no se puede ser anti nuclear y comprar nuclear de Francia. Es una obviedad, además de un fariseismo. Pero una obviedad que circula de boca en boca y que pasa a ser pronunciada por un Ex Presidente del Gobierno del prestigio de Felipe González, actual Presidente del Comité de Expertos para la Renovación de la UE. Por otra parte, la salida del gobierno de Cristina Narbona, una de las personas más influyentes del entorno del presidente y con una posición más contraria a esta tecnología, parece que ha despertado las alarmas en el lobby antinuclear.
Son tiempos de debate nuclear y de que se propicie desde las instancias públicas una apertura del debate sobre la energía nuclear, sin apriorismos, sin terrores y sin dogmáticos.
El tema es que hay que analizar un posible escenario a largo plazo (50 años) donde se cubra toda la demanda con posibles mix de generación. Tiene que ser un análisis exhaustivo de diferentes hipótesis.
Se tiene que tener en cuenta factores como residuos radiactivos a largo plazo, el déficit tarifario español, el protocolo de Kyoto hasta cuándo, el aumento hasta qué capacidad de la interconexión con Francia.
Hay que establecer escenarios con márgenes de error y apostar por la generación futura firmemente.
Lo que menos se está haciendo es un análisis exhaustivo, lo que está pasando es político o dogmático.
La apuesta de Italia por la energía nuclear, se suma a la de Francia y Reino Unido. Nuestra dependencia del petróleo y del gas es un lastre que la economía española lleva arrastrando desde hace muchos años. Se han perdido unos años maravillosos a raíz del parón nuclear decretado por intereses políticos en pasadas legislaturas. Nuestra capacidad de generación nuclear debería llegar al 50 % para acercarnos a Francia que produce el 80 % de su energía con centrales nucleares, parte de la cual nos vende. Ahora estamos en torno al 17 % y la tendencia es a disminuir. Existen sectores críticos que alzan sus voces contra la Energía Nuclear y manipulan la opinión pública que en su mayoría desconoce que esta energía es limpia con el medio ambiente, segura por sus exigentes sistemas de seguridad, y rentable económicamente frente a otras energías que resultan muy caras.
No podemos seguir perdiendo el tiempo, mientras el petróleo se agota y se encarece debido a la alta demanda de los países emergentes y a la especulación.
No podemos seguir perdiendo el tiempo mientras nos alejamos cada vez más de los acuerdos de Kioto.
No podemos seguir perdiendo el tiempo mientras seguimos aumentando las emisiones de efecto invernadero.
No podemos seguir perdiendo el tiempo mientras nuestra economía se sumerge en una nueva crisis de ámbito internacional, debido a las dependencias de factores externos.
Es el momento de actuar como ya lo están haciendo Francia, Gran Bretaña, Italia y otros países que les seguirán muy pronto sin lugar a dudas.
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