El déficit tarifario español conmociona a los analistas financieros internacionales

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La herencia que recibe el Partido Popular con el déficit tarifario es envenenada. Eso es cierto, pero las informaciones aparecidas en días pasados que anunciaban los planes de esta formación política tras las elecciones generales para elevar la fiscalidad de las centrales hidráulicas y nucleares con una tasa de nueva creación parece que han corroborado una posible línea más intervencionista del nuevo Gobierno, y no han caído en saco roto. De hecho, los analistas financieros internacionales ya han tomado buena nota de ello. El hecho es que la noticia se ha propagado como un reguero de pólvora y ayer el mundo financiero internacional se hacía eco de estas primeras informaciones.
Coincidiendo con las nuevas calificaciones que las agencias de rating han efectuado de las instituciones financieras, ayer se podían conocer otros tres informes de analistas internacionales que han puesto el dedo en la llaga del riesgo regulatorio de nuestro país en el sector eléctrico derivado del déficit tarifario, de su volumen y de las posibles actuaciones del nuevo gobierno al respecto. Malas noticias para España y para Mariano Rajoy en su comienzo, que deberá sortear este problema sin generar problemas adicionales de financiación y de confianza en nuestra economía.
Tres informes a los que ha tenido acceso esta publicación, muy inquietantes. Estos informes, emitidos por las empresas de análisis financiero Nomura, City Bank y Goldman Sachs, referidos a las «utilities» españolas, ponen el acento en el riesgo regulatorio y en la posibilidad del riesgo de intervención pública.
En primer lugar, Nomura hacía patente, a través de una encuesta realizada entre las 40 compañías de «utilities» españolas, cómo el 75% de los consultados consideraba que en España existía riesgo regulatorio, por encima de Reino Unido, Alemania, Francia, Finlandia, Italia o Portugal.
Por su parte, el segundo informe, procedente de Citigroup, estima el déficit total en 16.244 millones de euros (13.694 millones transferido ya a FADE, titulizado en 9.000 millones y 2.550 millones adicionales como previsión para 2011), del cual faltaría por ser titulizados 7.244 millones de euros. El informe señala la necesidad de revisión de la política de renovables del país y, en particular, de la utilización de las tecnologías más caras, cuantificando el ahorro derivado de reducir en 2012 la instalación de tecnologías solar fotovoltaica y termosolar en 661 millones de euros anuales.
Finalmente, Goldman Sachs también analiza el impacto y volumen del déficit tarifario y hace hincapié en la situación del país y en los niveles de desempleo existentes en estos momentos así como de las posibilidades de acción política del nuevo Ejecutivo. Goldman Sachs recoge la propuesta conocida en días pasados de imposición de una tasa a las energías hidráulica y nuclear como medida de intervención pública y riesgo regulatorio. Además, considera que la medida revertirá en mayores precios en el mercado de generación (GS efectúa una comparativa de los mercados spot de generación españoles en estos momentos a futuros y refleja que son menores, fruto del exceso de capacidad instalada del país).
De hecho, Goldman Sachs sugiere un mix de soluciones entre las que se encuentra la reducción de los costes regulados (renovables y transporte), así como la elevación de las tarifas. En este sentido, propone que las tasas a estas tecnologías no deberían ser la única solución. Goldman Sach, fruto de estas previsiones políticas, llega a estimar el efecto sobre las valoraciones de las empresas eléctricas españolas y revisa sus precios objetivos.
Por tanto, parece que en medio de la situación financiera internacional, Rajoy y su equipo deberán ser especialmente cautelosos con el problema del déficit tarifario, tanto con el acumulado como con la tendencia a generar más déficit provocada por la incapacidad política para atajar el incremento de costes y, por otro lado, de ajustar los tarifas y precios energéticos a la realidad. Los mercados financieros nos observan.

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